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Abstract
Exchange rate fluctuations and external shocks such as the trade war are predicted to put pressure on Indonesia’s trade balance. Based on VECM analysis, the exchange rate and Indonesia’s aggregate trade balance followed the J-Curve. Additionally, the trade war had impact on Rupiah depreciation and trade balance. The study also confirms eight export-oriented industries that are resilient to shocks and classified into four behaviors: (i) industries following the J-Curve; (ii) industries following the J-Curve in the long run; (iii) industriy which are not fully confirmed J-Curve, and (iv) Rest sector. The implication of this study emphasize the development of export-oriented and labor-intensive industries (Salter-Corden model). Keywords: J Curve; exchange rate; trade war; Salter Coden Model; VECM ------------------------------------------- Pergerakan nilai tukar Rupiah dan guncangan eksternal seperti perang dagang diprediksi akan memberikan tekanan terhadap neraca perdagangan. Berdasarkan analisis VECM, nilai tukar rupiah dan neraca perdagangan Indonesia secara agregat mengikuti fenomena J-Curve. Perang dagang terbukti memengaruhi depresiasi nilai tukar Rupiah dan neraca perdagangan Indonesia. Terdapat delapan industri berorientasi ekspor yang memiliki resiliensi terhadap guncangan dan diklasifikasikan menjadi empat, yakni: (i) Kelompok industri yang mengikuti fenomena J-Curve sepenuhnya; (ii) Kelompok industri dengan fenomena J-Curve pada jangka panjang; (iii) Kelompok industri yang tidak sepenuhnya mengikuti fenomena J-Curve, dan (iv) Industri lainnya. Implikasi studi ini menekankan pengembangan industri yang berorientasi ekspor dan intensif tenaga kerja (Salter-Corden model).
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References
- Arbia, G., Basile, R., & Piras, G. (2005). Using spatial panel data in modelling regional growth and convergence. ISAE Working Papers, 55. Institute for Studies and Economic Analyses (ISAE). https://ebiblio.istat.it/digibib/Working%20Papers/WP552005ArbiaPirasBasile.pdf.
- Arize, A. C., Osang, T., & Slottje, D. J. (2000). Exchange-rate volatility and foreign trade: evidence from thirteen LDC’s. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 18(1), 10-17.
- Bahmani-Oskooee, M., & Kantipong, T. (2001). Bilateral J-curve between Thailand and her trading partners. Journal of Economic Development, 26(2), 107-118.
- Bahmani-Oskooee, M., & Harvey, H. (2009). The J-curve: Indonesia vs. her major trading partners. Journal of Economic Integration, 24(4), 765-777.
- Darwanto. (2014). Adakah fenomena Marshall-Lerner condition dan J-Curve di Indonesia. Jurnal Bisnis dan Ekonomi, 21(1), 18-29.
- Elhorst, J. P. (2014). Spatial econometrics: from cross-sectional data to spatial panels. Springer.
- Enders,W. (2004). Applied econometric time series (2nd edition). New York: John Willey & Sons.
- Jajang, Saefuddin, A., Mangku, I. W., & Siregar, H. (2013). Analisis kemiskinan menggunakan model panel spasial statik. Mimbar: Jurnal Sosial dan Pembangunan, 29(2), 195-204. doi: https://doi.org/10.29313/mimbar.v29i2.396.
- Leigh, D., Lian,W., Poplawski-Ribeiro, M., Szymanski, R., Tsyrennikov, V., & Yang, H. (2016). Exchange rates and trade: Disconnected? https://www.imf.org/external/np/seminars/eng/2016/ExchangeRates/pdf/Leigh.pdf.
- LeSage, J., & Pace, R. K. (2009). Introduction to spatial econometrics. Chapman and Hall/CRC.
- Onafowora, O. (2003). Exchange rate and trade balance in East Asia: is there a J-curve. Economics Bulletin, 5(18), 1-13.
- Petrovi´c, P., & Gligori´c, M. (2010). Exchange rate and trade balance: J-curve effect. Panoeconomicus, 57(1), 23-41. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.2298/PAN1001023P.
- Ramadona. (2016). Pengaruh perubahan nilai tukar terhadap neraca perdagangan Indonesia (Master Theses, Institut Pertanian Bogor).
- Ramakrishnan, U., Martorell, R., Schroeder, D. G., & Flores, R. (1999). Role of intergenerational effects on linear growth. The Journal of Nutrition, 129(2), 544S-549S. doi: https://doi.org/10.1093/jn/129.2.544S.
- Rose, A. K. (1990). Exchange rates and the trade balance: some evidence from developing countries. Economics Letters, 34(3), 271-275. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/0165-1765(90)90130-S.
- Rose, A. K., & Yellen, J. L. (1989). Is there a J-curve? Journal of Monetary Economics, 24(1), 53-68. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-3932(89)90016-0.
- Sabuhi-Sabouni, M., & Piri, M. (2008). Consideration the effect of exchange rate volatility on agricultural products export price, the case study of Iran’s saffron. American-Eurasian Journal of Agricultural & Environmental Sciences, 2(Supple 1), 97-100.
- Ward, B. D., & Siregar, H. (2000). The role of aggregate demand shocks in explaining Indonesian macro-economic fluctuations. Commerce Division Discussion Paper, 86. Lincoln University. http://dspace.lincoln.ac.nz/handle/10182/542.
- Wilson, P. (2001). Exchange rates and the trade balance for dynamic Asian economies—does the J-curve exist for Singapore, Malaysia, and Korea?. Open Economies Review, 12(4), 389-413. doi: https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1017982901034.
References
Arbia, G., Basile, R., & Piras, G. (2005). Using spatial panel data in modelling regional growth and convergence. ISAE Working Papers, 55. Institute for Studies and Economic Analyses (ISAE). https://ebiblio.istat.it/digibib/Working%20Papers/WP552005ArbiaPirasBasile.pdf.
Arize, A. C., Osang, T., & Slottje, D. J. (2000). Exchange-rate volatility and foreign trade: evidence from thirteen LDC’s. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 18(1), 10-17.
Bahmani-Oskooee, M., & Kantipong, T. (2001). Bilateral J-curve between Thailand and her trading partners. Journal of Economic Development, 26(2), 107-118.
Bahmani-Oskooee, M., & Harvey, H. (2009). The J-curve: Indonesia vs. her major trading partners. Journal of Economic Integration, 24(4), 765-777.
Darwanto. (2014). Adakah fenomena Marshall-Lerner condition dan J-Curve di Indonesia. Jurnal Bisnis dan Ekonomi, 21(1), 18-29.
Elhorst, J. P. (2014). Spatial econometrics: from cross-sectional data to spatial panels. Springer.
Enders,W. (2004). Applied econometric time series (2nd edition). New York: John Willey & Sons.
Jajang, Saefuddin, A., Mangku, I. W., & Siregar, H. (2013). Analisis kemiskinan menggunakan model panel spasial statik. Mimbar: Jurnal Sosial dan Pembangunan, 29(2), 195-204. doi: https://doi.org/10.29313/mimbar.v29i2.396.
Leigh, D., Lian,W., Poplawski-Ribeiro, M., Szymanski, R., Tsyrennikov, V., & Yang, H. (2016). Exchange rates and trade: Disconnected? https://www.imf.org/external/np/seminars/eng/2016/ExchangeRates/pdf/Leigh.pdf.
LeSage, J., & Pace, R. K. (2009). Introduction to spatial econometrics. Chapman and Hall/CRC.
Onafowora, O. (2003). Exchange rate and trade balance in East Asia: is there a J-curve. Economics Bulletin, 5(18), 1-13.
Petrovi´c, P., & Gligori´c, M. (2010). Exchange rate and trade balance: J-curve effect. Panoeconomicus, 57(1), 23-41. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.2298/PAN1001023P.
Ramadona. (2016). Pengaruh perubahan nilai tukar terhadap neraca perdagangan Indonesia (Master Theses, Institut Pertanian Bogor).
Ramakrishnan, U., Martorell, R., Schroeder, D. G., & Flores, R. (1999). Role of intergenerational effects on linear growth. The Journal of Nutrition, 129(2), 544S-549S. doi: https://doi.org/10.1093/jn/129.2.544S.
Rose, A. K. (1990). Exchange rates and the trade balance: some evidence from developing countries. Economics Letters, 34(3), 271-275. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/0165-1765(90)90130-S.
Rose, A. K., & Yellen, J. L. (1989). Is there a J-curve? Journal of Monetary Economics, 24(1), 53-68. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-3932(89)90016-0.
Sabuhi-Sabouni, M., & Piri, M. (2008). Consideration the effect of exchange rate volatility on agricultural products export price, the case study of Iran’s saffron. American-Eurasian Journal of Agricultural & Environmental Sciences, 2(Supple 1), 97-100.
Ward, B. D., & Siregar, H. (2000). The role of aggregate demand shocks in explaining Indonesian macro-economic fluctuations. Commerce Division Discussion Paper, 86. Lincoln University. http://dspace.lincoln.ac.nz/handle/10182/542.
Wilson, P. (2001). Exchange rates and the trade balance for dynamic Asian economies—does the J-curve exist for Singapore, Malaysia, and Korea?. Open Economies Review, 12(4), 389-413. doi: https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1017982901034.