Model Hybrid dalam Penentuan Nilai Tukar Rupiah: Pendekatan Mikrostruktur dan Makroekonomi

  • Fitri Handayani Badan Pusat Statistik Provinsi Kalimantan Selatan
Keywords: model hybrid, model makroekonomi, mikrostruktur, nilai tukar, ARDL

Abstract

Salah satu penghambat percepatan pemulihan ekonomi adalah volatilitas nilai tukar, yang menimbulkan kebutuhan akan model pergerakan nilai tukar yang tepat. Penelitian ini menggunakan model hybrid, yang memadukan metodologi mikrostruktur dan ekonomi makro dengan pendekatan model ARDL, untuk menganalisis pergerakan nilai tukar. Hasil yang diperoleh menggunakan metode ARDL menunjukkan bahwa terdapat hubungan jangka panjang dan jangka pendek model hybrid terhadap pergerakan nilai tukar.
Variabel mikrostruktur, yang menggunakan spread dan high-low spread, memiliki pengaruh yang signifikan dalam menjelaskan nilai tukar. Dalam jangka panjang, model makroekonomi yang meliputi jumlah uang beredar, aset luar negeri neto, dan suku bunga tidak berpengaruh signifikan, kecuali tingkat harga yang dapat menjelaskan pergerakan nilai tukar secara signifikan. Dengan keterlibatan variabel mikrostruktur, model hybrid dapat digunakan untuk menutup celah hubungan makroekonomi dalam menjelaskan nilai tukar.

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Published
2023-02-11
How to Cite
Handayani, F. (2023). Model Hybrid dalam Penentuan Nilai Tukar Rupiah: Pendekatan Mikrostruktur dan Makroekonomi. Jurnal Ekonomi Indonesia, 11(3), 235-250. https://doi.org/10.52813/jei.v11i3.231
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Articles