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September 29, 2024
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August 28, 2025
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Abstract
This study assess how credit provision to MSMEs by sector impacts sectoral economic growth (manufacturing, retail and wholesale trades, transportation, accommodation and food beverage providing, company services, and others services) in 34 provinces in Indonesia, using control variables (population, workforce, and digitalization), as well as dummy variables before and during the COVID-19 pandemic and the economic recovery period. The results of a multivariate regression analysis indicate that credit provision to MSMEs in a sector has a unique effect on other sectors. Interestingly, digitalization has a dominant impact on the Indonesian economy. Priority policies aimed at transforming the national and regional economies can be effectively implemented by providing capital stimulus in the form of business credit to MSMEs, particularly in Indonesia’s leading sectors, and by optimizing the development of ICT facilities and infrastructure.
Keywords
digitalization; MSME credit; economic transformation; multivariate regression
Article Details
How to Cite
Anam, Y. C., & Lubis, D. A. (2025). Is the bank credit able to accelerate economic transformation? A multivariate modeling of key sectors in Indonesia. Jurnal Ekonomi Indonesia, 14(2), 192–208. https://doi.org/10.52813/jei.v14i2.571
References
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[1] Bank Indonesia. (2022). Statistik ekonomi dan keuangan daerah.
[2] Badan Pusat Statistik. (2020). Berita resmi statistik: Perekonomian Indonesia triwulan II tahun 2020. Jakarta: BPS.
[3] Badan Pusat Statistik. (2020). Berita resmi statistik: Statistik tenaga kerja Agustus 2020. Jakarta: BPS.
[4] Badan Pusat Statistik. (2021). Berita resmi statistik: Perekonomian Indonesia triwulan II tahun 2021. Jakarta: BPS.
[5] Burhan, F., & Ahmad, B. (2022). GoTo bersiap IPO, total transaksi Tokopedia Rp 126,6 triliun. Katadata. https://katadata.co.id/desysetyowati/digital/623031851add9/goto-bersiap-ipo-total-transaksi-tokopedia-rp-126-6-triliun
[6] Gaspersz, V. (1996). Total quality management. Jakarta: Gramedia Pustaka Utama.
[7] Ikhsan, I., & Amri, K. (2023). Sectoral growth impacts of bank credit allocation: The role of COVID-19 pandemic as moderating variable. Economic Studies (Ikonomicheski Izsledvania), 32(5), 32–50.
[8] Johnson, R. A., & Wichern, D. W. (2007). Applied multivariate statistical analysis. Pearson Education Inc.
[9] Katadata Insight Centre. (2021). Digitalisasi UMKM di tengah pandemi Covid-19. https://katadata.co.id/umkm
[10] Lidwina. (2021). Jumlah pelaku UMKM di Tokopedia meningkat selama pandemi Covid-19. Databoks Katadata. https://databoks.katadata.co.id/datapublish/2021/03/25/jumlah-pelaku-umkm-di-tokopedia-meningkat-selama-pandemi-covid-19
[11] Mahmud, A. A., Miah, M. S., & Bhuiyan, M. R. U. (2022). Does trade credit financing affect firm performance? Evidence from an emerging market. International Journal of Financial Studies, 10(4), 85. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijfs10040085
[12] Majeed, S., & Iftikhar, S. F. (2020). Modelling the relationship between banking sector credit and economic growth: A sectoral analysis for Pakistan. Journal of Economic Cooperation and Development, 41(1), 145–178.
[13] Morrison, D. F. (2005). Multivariate statistical methods. The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania.
[14] Otoritas Jasa Keuangan. (2015). Potensi pertumbuhan ekonomi ditinjau dari penyaluran kredit perbankan kepada sektor prioritas ekonomi pemerintah. https://www.ojk.go.id/
[15] Okwuosa, G. I., & Ifeosame, S. N. (2024). Sectoral bank credit and economic development: Evidence from Nigeria. American Journal of Business Management, Economics and Banking, 26, 1–13.
[16] Osman, I. R., & Shafenti. (2020). Analisis peranan kredit sektoral dan pengaruh BI rate dalam mendorong pertumbuhan ekonomi nasional. Jurnal IKRA-ITH Ekonomika, 3(1), 80–91.
[17] Pham, D., & Huynh, T. (2020). The impact of trade credit investment on manufacturing firms’ profitability: Evidence from Vietnam. Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis, 68, 775–796.
[18] Pindyck, R. S., & Rubinfeld, D. L. (2008). Mikroekonomi (Edisi ke-6, Jilid 1 dan 2). Jakarta: PT Indeks Kelompok.
[19] Rosyidi, S. (2005). Pengantar teori ekonomi. Surabaya: PT Rajagrafindo Persada.
[20] Soekartawi. (2003). Teori ekonomi produksi dengan pokok bahasan analisis Cobb Douglas. Jakarta: PT Rajagrafindo Persada.
[21] Sugiarto, E. C. (2021). Akselerasi transformasi digital dan pemulihan ekonomi. Setneg. https://www.setneg.go.id/baca/index/akselerasi_transformasi_digital_dan_pemulihan_ekonomi
[22] Sukirno, S. (2002). Teori mikro ekonomi (Cetakan ke-14). Jakarta: Rajawali Press.
[23] Victoria, A. O. (2021). Hanya 12,5% UMKM di Indonesia yang kebal dari pandemi Covid-19. Katadata. https://katadata.co.id/agustiyanti/finansial/605d9f635fdf7/hanya-12-5-umkm-di-indonesia-yang-kebal-dari-pandemi-covid-19
[24] Zhang, J., et al. (2022). The impact of digital economy on economic growth and development strategies in the post-COVID-19 era: Evidence from countries along the “Belt and Road”. Frontiers in Public Health, 10.
References
[1] Bank Indonesia. (2022). Statistik ekonomi dan keuangan daerah.
[2] Badan Pusat Statistik. (2020). Berita resmi statistik: Perekonomian Indonesia triwulan II tahun 2020. Jakarta: BPS.
[3] Badan Pusat Statistik. (2020). Berita resmi statistik: Statistik tenaga kerja Agustus 2020. Jakarta: BPS.
[4] Badan Pusat Statistik. (2021). Berita resmi statistik: Perekonomian Indonesia triwulan II tahun 2021. Jakarta: BPS.
[5] Burhan, F., & Ahmad, B. (2022). GoTo bersiap IPO, total transaksi Tokopedia Rp 126,6 triliun. Katadata. https://katadata.co.id/desysetyowati/digital/623031851add9/goto-bersiap-ipo-total-transaksi-tokopedia-rp-126-6-triliun
[6] Gaspersz, V. (1996). Total quality management. Jakarta: Gramedia Pustaka Utama.
[7] Ikhsan, I., & Amri, K. (2023). Sectoral growth impacts of bank credit allocation: The role of COVID-19 pandemic as moderating variable. Economic Studies (Ikonomicheski Izsledvania), 32(5), 32–50.
[8] Johnson, R. A., & Wichern, D. W. (2007). Applied multivariate statistical analysis. Pearson Education Inc.
[9] Katadata Insight Centre. (2021). Digitalisasi UMKM di tengah pandemi Covid-19. https://katadata.co.id/umkm
[10] Lidwina. (2021). Jumlah pelaku UMKM di Tokopedia meningkat selama pandemi Covid-19. Databoks Katadata. https://databoks.katadata.co.id/datapublish/2021/03/25/jumlah-pelaku-umkm-di-tokopedia-meningkat-selama-pandemi-covid-19
[11] Mahmud, A. A., Miah, M. S., & Bhuiyan, M. R. U. (2022). Does trade credit financing affect firm performance? Evidence from an emerging market. International Journal of Financial Studies, 10(4), 85. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijfs10040085
[12] Majeed, S., & Iftikhar, S. F. (2020). Modelling the relationship between banking sector credit and economic growth: A sectoral analysis for Pakistan. Journal of Economic Cooperation and Development, 41(1), 145–178.
[13] Morrison, D. F. (2005). Multivariate statistical methods. The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania.
[14] Otoritas Jasa Keuangan. (2015). Potensi pertumbuhan ekonomi ditinjau dari penyaluran kredit perbankan kepada sektor prioritas ekonomi pemerintah. https://www.ojk.go.id/
[15] Okwuosa, G. I., & Ifeosame, S. N. (2024). Sectoral bank credit and economic development: Evidence from Nigeria. American Journal of Business Management, Economics and Banking, 26, 1–13.
[16] Osman, I. R., & Shafenti. (2020). Analisis peranan kredit sektoral dan pengaruh BI rate dalam mendorong pertumbuhan ekonomi nasional. Jurnal IKRA-ITH Ekonomika, 3(1), 80–91.
[17] Pham, D., & Huynh, T. (2020). The impact of trade credit investment on manufacturing firms’ profitability: Evidence from Vietnam. Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis, 68, 775–796.
[18] Pindyck, R. S., & Rubinfeld, D. L. (2008). Mikroekonomi (Edisi ke-6, Jilid 1 dan 2). Jakarta: PT Indeks Kelompok.
[19] Rosyidi, S. (2005). Pengantar teori ekonomi. Surabaya: PT Rajagrafindo Persada.
[20] Soekartawi. (2003). Teori ekonomi produksi dengan pokok bahasan analisis Cobb Douglas. Jakarta: PT Rajagrafindo Persada.
[21] Sugiarto, E. C. (2021). Akselerasi transformasi digital dan pemulihan ekonomi. Setneg. https://www.setneg.go.id/baca/index/akselerasi_transformasi_digital_dan_pemulihan_ekonomi
[22] Sukirno, S. (2002). Teori mikro ekonomi (Cetakan ke-14). Jakarta: Rajawali Press.
[23] Victoria, A. O. (2021). Hanya 12,5% UMKM di Indonesia yang kebal dari pandemi Covid-19. Katadata. https://katadata.co.id/agustiyanti/finansial/605d9f635fdf7/hanya-12-5-umkm-di-indonesia-yang-kebal-dari-pandemi-covid-19
[24] Zhang, J., et al. (2022). The impact of digital economy on economic growth and development strategies in the post-COVID-19 era: Evidence from countries along the “Belt and Road”. Frontiers in Public Health, 10.
[2] Badan Pusat Statistik. (2020). Berita resmi statistik: Perekonomian Indonesia triwulan II tahun 2020. Jakarta: BPS.
[3] Badan Pusat Statistik. (2020). Berita resmi statistik: Statistik tenaga kerja Agustus 2020. Jakarta: BPS.
[4] Badan Pusat Statistik. (2021). Berita resmi statistik: Perekonomian Indonesia triwulan II tahun 2021. Jakarta: BPS.
[5] Burhan, F., & Ahmad, B. (2022). GoTo bersiap IPO, total transaksi Tokopedia Rp 126,6 triliun. Katadata. https://katadata.co.id/desysetyowati/digital/623031851add9/goto-bersiap-ipo-total-transaksi-tokopedia-rp-126-6-triliun
[6] Gaspersz, V. (1996). Total quality management. Jakarta: Gramedia Pustaka Utama.
[7] Ikhsan, I., & Amri, K. (2023). Sectoral growth impacts of bank credit allocation: The role of COVID-19 pandemic as moderating variable. Economic Studies (Ikonomicheski Izsledvania), 32(5), 32–50.
[8] Johnson, R. A., & Wichern, D. W. (2007). Applied multivariate statistical analysis. Pearson Education Inc.
[9] Katadata Insight Centre. (2021). Digitalisasi UMKM di tengah pandemi Covid-19. https://katadata.co.id/umkm
[10] Lidwina. (2021). Jumlah pelaku UMKM di Tokopedia meningkat selama pandemi Covid-19. Databoks Katadata. https://databoks.katadata.co.id/datapublish/2021/03/25/jumlah-pelaku-umkm-di-tokopedia-meningkat-selama-pandemi-covid-19
[11] Mahmud, A. A., Miah, M. S., & Bhuiyan, M. R. U. (2022). Does trade credit financing affect firm performance? Evidence from an emerging market. International Journal of Financial Studies, 10(4), 85. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijfs10040085
[12] Majeed, S., & Iftikhar, S. F. (2020). Modelling the relationship between banking sector credit and economic growth: A sectoral analysis for Pakistan. Journal of Economic Cooperation and Development, 41(1), 145–178.
[13] Morrison, D. F. (2005). Multivariate statistical methods. The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania.
[14] Otoritas Jasa Keuangan. (2015). Potensi pertumbuhan ekonomi ditinjau dari penyaluran kredit perbankan kepada sektor prioritas ekonomi pemerintah. https://www.ojk.go.id/
[15] Okwuosa, G. I., & Ifeosame, S. N. (2024). Sectoral bank credit and economic development: Evidence from Nigeria. American Journal of Business Management, Economics and Banking, 26, 1–13.
[16] Osman, I. R., & Shafenti. (2020). Analisis peranan kredit sektoral dan pengaruh BI rate dalam mendorong pertumbuhan ekonomi nasional. Jurnal IKRA-ITH Ekonomika, 3(1), 80–91.
[17] Pham, D., & Huynh, T. (2020). The impact of trade credit investment on manufacturing firms’ profitability: Evidence from Vietnam. Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis, 68, 775–796.
[18] Pindyck, R. S., & Rubinfeld, D. L. (2008). Mikroekonomi (Edisi ke-6, Jilid 1 dan 2). Jakarta: PT Indeks Kelompok.
[19] Rosyidi, S. (2005). Pengantar teori ekonomi. Surabaya: PT Rajagrafindo Persada.
[20] Soekartawi. (2003). Teori ekonomi produksi dengan pokok bahasan analisis Cobb Douglas. Jakarta: PT Rajagrafindo Persada.
[21] Sugiarto, E. C. (2021). Akselerasi transformasi digital dan pemulihan ekonomi. Setneg. https://www.setneg.go.id/baca/index/akselerasi_transformasi_digital_dan_pemulihan_ekonomi
[22] Sukirno, S. (2002). Teori mikro ekonomi (Cetakan ke-14). Jakarta: Rajawali Press.
[23] Victoria, A. O. (2021). Hanya 12,5% UMKM di Indonesia yang kebal dari pandemi Covid-19. Katadata. https://katadata.co.id/agustiyanti/finansial/605d9f635fdf7/hanya-12-5-umkm-di-indonesia-yang-kebal-dari-pandemi-covid-19
[24] Zhang, J., et al. (2022). The impact of digital economy on economic growth and development strategies in the post-COVID-19 era: Evidence from countries along the “Belt and Road”. Frontiers in Public Health, 10.