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Abstract
Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengungkap pengaruh dari kenaikan tarif PPN ke 12% terhadap PDB dan tingkat kemiskinan di Indonesia dengan model CGE Statis serta memperkirakan potensi PPN yang belum direalisasikan oleh pemerintah Indonesia mengacu pada tabel Input-Output 2016. Hasil simulasi menemukan bahwa PDB nominal berpotensi turun sebesar 0,8% dan penduduk miskin diperkirakan naik sebesar 267.279 jiwa jika PPN naik menjadi 12%. Selain itu, nilai potensi PPN yang belum direalisasikan oleh pemerintah diestimasi sebesar Rp405,5–529,4 triliun per-tahunnya. Temuan ini memiliki implikasi bahwa pajak dapat mendistorsi kondisi sosial-ekonomi di Indonesia dan pemerintah sampai saat ini belum dapat memperoleh penerimaan PPN yang optimal.
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References
- Amir, H., Asafu-Adjaye, J., & Ducpham, T. (2013). The impact of the Indonesian income tax reform: A CGE analysis. Economic Modelling, 31, 492-501. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2012.12.018.
- Auerbach, A. J. (1996). Measuring the impact of tax reform. National Tax Journal, 49(4), 665-673. doi: https://doi.org/10.1086/NTJ41789233.
- Bourguignon, F. (2003). The growth elasticity of poverty reduction: explaining heterogeneity across countries and time periods. In T. S. Eicher & S. J. Turnovsky (Eds.), Inequality and growth: Theory and policy implications, pp. 3-26. The MIT Press.
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- Dollar, D., & Kraay, A. (2002). Growth is good for the poor. Journal of Economic Growth, 7, 195-225. doi: https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1020139631000.
- Devarajan, S., Go, D. S., Lewis, J. D., Robinson, S., & Sinko, P. (1997). Simple general equilibrium modeling. In J. F. Francois & K. A. Reinert (Eds.), Applied methods for trade policy analysis: A handbook, pp. 156-183. Cambridge University Press.
- Eicher, T. S., Turnovsky, S. J., & Prunera, M. C. R. (2003). The impact of tax policy on inequality and growth: an empirical and theoretical investigation. In T. S. Eicher & S. J. Turnovsky (Eds.), Inequality and growth: Theory and policy implications, pp. 227-... The MIT Press.
- Engen, E., & Skinner, J. (1996). Taxation and economic growth. National Tax Journal, 49(4), 617-642. doi: https://doi.org/10.1086/NTJ41789231.
- Gemmell, N. (1988). Tax systems, tax revenue and growth in LDCs: A review of empirical evidence. Intereconomics, 23, 84-90. doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02927028.
- Kraay, A. (2006). When is growth pro-poor? Evidence from a panel of countries. Journal of Development Economics, 80(1), 198-227. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2005.02.004.
- Lee, Y., & Gordon, R. H. (2005). Tax structure and economic growth. Journal of Public Economics, 89(5-6), 1027-1043. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2004.07.002.
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- Mendoza, E. G., Razin, A., & Tesar, L. L. (1994). Effective tax rates in macroeconomics: Cross-country estimates of tax rates on factor incomes and consumption. Journal of Monetary Economics, 34(3), 297-323. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-3932(94)90021-3.
- OECD. (2020). Revenue statistics in Asian and Pacific economies 2020. Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. OECD Publishing.
- Ravallion, M., & Chen, S. (1997). What can new survey data tell us about recent changes in distribution and poverty?. The World Bank Economic Review, 11(2), 357-382. doi: https://doi.org/10.1093/wber/11.2.357.
- Resosudarmo, B. P., & Thorbecke, E. (1996). The impact of environmental policies on household incomes for different socio-economic classes: The case of air pollutants in Indonesia. Ecological Economics, 17(2), 83-94. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/0921-8009(95)00113-1.
- Son, H. H. (2004). A note on pro-poor growth. Economics Letters, 82(3), 307-314. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2003.08.003.
- Son, H. H., & Kakwani, N. (2008). Global estimates of pro-poor growth. World Development, 36(6), 1048-1066.
- Stokey, N. L., & Rebelo, S. (1995). Growth effects of flat-rate taxes. Journal of Political Economy, 103(3), 519-550. doi: https://doi.org/10.1086/261993.
- Timmer, C. P. (2007). How Indonesia connected the poor to rapid economic growth. In T. Besley & L. J. Cord (Eds.), Delivering on the promise of pro-poor growth: insights and lessons from country experiences, pp. 29-57. A copublication of the World Bank and Palgrave Macmillan.
References
Amir, H., Asafu-Adjaye, J., & Ducpham, T. (2013). The impact of the Indonesian income tax reform: A CGE analysis. Economic Modelling, 31, 492-501. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2012.12.018.
Auerbach, A. J. (1996). Measuring the impact of tax reform. National Tax Journal, 49(4), 665-673. doi: https://doi.org/10.1086/NTJ41789233.
Bourguignon, F. (2003). The growth elasticity of poverty reduction: explaining heterogeneity across countries and time periods. In T. S. Eicher & S. J. Turnovsky (Eds.), Inequality and growth: Theory and policy implications, pp. 3-26. The MIT Press.
BPS. (2015–2020). Produk domestik bruto (lapangan usaha). Badan Pusat Statistik. https://www.bps.go.id/subject/11/produk-domestik-bruto--lapangan-usaha-.html#subjekViewTab3.
Dollar, D., & Kraay, A. (2002). Growth is good for the poor. Journal of Economic Growth, 7, 195-225. doi: https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1020139631000.
Devarajan, S., Go, D. S., Lewis, J. D., Robinson, S., & Sinko, P. (1997). Simple general equilibrium modeling. In J. F. Francois & K. A. Reinert (Eds.), Applied methods for trade policy analysis: A handbook, pp. 156-183. Cambridge University Press.
Eicher, T. S., Turnovsky, S. J., & Prunera, M. C. R. (2003). The impact of tax policy on inequality and growth: an empirical and theoretical investigation. In T. S. Eicher & S. J. Turnovsky (Eds.), Inequality and growth: Theory and policy implications, pp. 227-... The MIT Press.
Engen, E., & Skinner, J. (1996). Taxation and economic growth. National Tax Journal, 49(4), 617-642. doi: https://doi.org/10.1086/NTJ41789231.
Gemmell, N. (1988). Tax systems, tax revenue and growth in LDCs: A review of empirical evidence. Intereconomics, 23, 84-90. doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02927028.
Kraay, A. (2006). When is growth pro-poor? Evidence from a panel of countries. Journal of Development Economics, 80(1), 198-227. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2005.02.004.
Lee, Y., & Gordon, R. H. (2005). Tax structure and economic growth. Journal of Public Economics, 89(5-6), 1027-1043. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2004.07.002.
Lofgren, H., Harris, R. L., & Robinson, S. (2002). A standard computable general equilibrium (CGE) model in GAMS. Microcomputers in Policy Research, 5. International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). https://www.ifpri.org/publication/standard-computable-general-equilibrium-cge-model-gams-0.
Mendoza, E. G., Razin, A., & Tesar, L. L. (1994). Effective tax rates in macroeconomics: Cross-country estimates of tax rates on factor incomes and consumption. Journal of Monetary Economics, 34(3), 297-323. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-3932(94)90021-3.
OECD. (2020). Revenue statistics in Asian and Pacific economies 2020. Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. OECD Publishing.
Ravallion, M., & Chen, S. (1997). What can new survey data tell us about recent changes in distribution and poverty?. The World Bank Economic Review, 11(2), 357-382. doi: https://doi.org/10.1093/wber/11.2.357.
Resosudarmo, B. P., & Thorbecke, E. (1996). The impact of environmental policies on household incomes for different socio-economic classes: The case of air pollutants in Indonesia. Ecological Economics, 17(2), 83-94. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/0921-8009(95)00113-1.
Son, H. H. (2004). A note on pro-poor growth. Economics Letters, 82(3), 307-314. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2003.08.003.
Son, H. H., & Kakwani, N. (2008). Global estimates of pro-poor growth. World Development, 36(6), 1048-1066.
Stokey, N. L., & Rebelo, S. (1995). Growth effects of flat-rate taxes. Journal of Political Economy, 103(3), 519-550. doi: https://doi.org/10.1086/261993.
Timmer, C. P. (2007). How Indonesia connected the poor to rapid economic growth. In T. Besley & L. J. Cord (Eds.), Delivering on the promise of pro-poor growth: insights and lessons from country experiences, pp. 29-57. A copublication of the World Bank and Palgrave Macmillan.