Peran Guncangan Terms of Trade terhadap Dinamika Inflasi di Indonesia
Abstract
Integrasi perekonomian global dalam tiga dekade terakhir telah menyebabkan perubahan siklus bisnis, terutama di negara berkembang yang ekspornya didominasi oleh komoditas primer seperti Indonesia. Negara-negara tersebut rentan dipengaruhi oleh guncangan global yang ditransmisikan melalui guncangan terms of trade. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis pengaruh guncangan terms of trade terhadap dinamika inflasi di Indonesia. Hasil analisis Impluse Response Function (IRF) menunjukkan adanya respons positif dari fluktuasi siklus bisnis yang meliputi neraca perdagangan, pendapatan per kapita, konsumsi, investasi, dan dinamika inflasi terhadap guncangan terms of trade. Namun, hasil analisis Forecast Error Variance Decomposition (FEVD) mengindikasikan bahwa guncangan terms of trade tidak memiliki peran signifikan dalam dinamika inflasi di Indonesia. Oleh karena itu, penerapan kebijakan makroprudensial, moneter, dan aliran modal asing tidak menjadi prioritas dalam mengatasi guncangan terms of trade karena tidak berhubungan
langsung dengan dinamika inflasi.
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