Peningkatan Tarif PPN Indonesia: Dampak Sosial Ekonomi dan Potensi yang Belum Terserap

Muhamad Mulya Tarmizi

Muhamad Mulya Tarmizi Sigmaphi Policy Research &Data Analysis

Keywords: PPN, analisis input output, analisis CGE, mikrosimulasi

Abstract

Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengungkap pengaruh dari kenaikan tarif PPN ke 12% terhadap PDB dan tingkat kemiskinan di Indonesia dengan model CGE Statis serta memperkirakan potensi PPN yang belum direalisasikan oleh pemerintah Indonesia mengacu pada tabel Input-Output 2016. Hasil simulasi menemukan bahwa PDB nominal berpotensi turun sebesar 0,8% dan penduduk miskin diperkirakan naik sebesar 267.279 jiwa jika PPN naik menjadi 12%. Selain itu, nilai potensi PPN yang belum direalisasikan oleh pemerintah diestimasi sebesar Rp405,5–529,4 triliun per-tahunnya. Temuan ini memiliki implikasi bahwa pajak dapat mendistorsi kondisi sosial-ekonomi di Indonesia dan pemerintah sampai saat ini belum dapat memperoleh penerimaan PPN yang optimal.

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